Windows Phone, it’s too late… (Update 1)

Windows Phone 7 Series:  A respectable showing from the antithesis of mobile innovation.   Though, if anyone can be late to a category, it’s Microsoft.  Their monopolistic position allows them to distribute Windows profits to money losing ventures like Bing, XBOX, and soon, I think, Windows Phone.  While the initial spotlight showed prototypes well, it wasn’t without serious issues:

1. Very slow response times
   1. Judgements based on H/W prototypes
2. No Windows Mobile Legacy Application Support
   1. Biggest indicator that MS is serious about future success!
   2. Admission of Windows Mobile Failure
3. The ‘Experience’ by Microsoft
   1. ‘Novel’ UI Design, not so novel
      1. Web OS, Motoblur, Android already provide unified social networking
   2. Hardware button layout controlled by Microsoft
   3. UI cannot be altered by phone manufacture/carrier
      1. Undifferentiated products is the outcome

Here’s what we need to be questioning:

1. The OS is graphically and connectivity intensive, meaning it will need …
   1. Dual-core SOCs for multiple threads and processes
      1. Dual application processor ARM Cortex A8 & A9 based offerings available at OS launch(Q4 2010)
   2. 45nm production processes for SOCs with decent energy efficiency
   3. LED backlighting or OLED displays to have even average battery life(by 2010 standards)
   4. Multitasking ala iPhone foreshadows poor battery life
2. How will developers monetize the Hub UI concept?
3. Does the world need another major phone platform?
   1. iPhone OS, Android, Symbian, Web OS and even Windows Mobile will vie for user/developer attention…
   2. May gain traction while the Smartphone market is growing as a whole
4. How will Microsoft entice the development ecosystem to Windows Phone?
   1. Sweeten the Profit Sharing Ratio of 3rd party apps.?
   2. Enterprises will continue to focus on Windows Mobile for quite some time
   3. Corporate Windows Phone adoption rate slow for first year, at the very best
5. Microsoft has the ability to fund development of the platform for years without netting a dime
   1. Apple, Google, and Nokia are, unfortunately for Microsoft, well capitalized competitors
   2. Technical superiority of Windows Phone will need to be clear
      1. Even if MS had the sizzle to sell, it couldn’t
6. High Spec. Common Hardware Denominator
   1. Think Motorola/Verizon Droid level hardware as a foundation
7. As an OS provider to the world, they WILL stratify their mobile OS offerings
   1. Does this imply a Windows Phone 6 series or 7 series lite?  Yes!
8. No matter how tightly Microsoft wants to control the ‘experience’, it may not be good enough
   1. Competing on the ‘experience’ is a losing strategy with vertically integrated competition
   2. Apple, Palm, and Nokia are highly vertically integrated competitors
   3. Apple is the best at this game with internal competencies in battery, CPU, overall device, and OS design.

Related Links:

Is Microsoft a four-letter word?

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13505_3-10455366-16.html?tag=newsFeaturedBlogArea.0

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